Monthly Archives: September 2011

Standing Inside the Outside Box

In his book Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces, George Box made the now semi-famous statement “All models are wrong, some are useful.” In summing up mathematical modeling and statistics, this comes about as close to ground truth on the subject … Continue reading

Posted in Community Development | 5 Comments

Overcoming the PolMil Prediction Addiction

(from the intro to a paper I’m writing) The dealer calmly dealt two cards to each of the eight players who sat around the table. I look at my cards and see a pair of queens. My first impulse is … Continue reading

Posted in Community Development | 11 Comments

Foreign Policy “Article” on History of Wargaming

It’s amazing how this guy manages to miss so many things that we would’ve considered “major” developments in the history of wargaming… Foreign Policy magazine website So I’m curious… what events would you guys say should’ve been on this list?

Posted in History | Tagged , | 3 Comments